25 Jun 2018

Market Outlook- short term


        Market index NIFTY failed to touch the all time high even after the recovery from March 2018 bottom.We have seen a consolidation phase between 10500 and 10800 in last two months and volume spurt  was not happened.Means,buyers are not active above 10800 level.Instead,profit booking is still going on.Foreign institutions are continuing net selling this year,though domestic institutions accumulate at discount situations.

       Like any previous election year,2018 is also uncertain for general index, although IT secor made a strong recovery recently.A High PE of 26.5 is a big concern for foreign institutional investors,as they search undervalued opportunities across the globe.US Market also trades at an over bought phase;but their dividend yield looks better than India.Rising non performing assets in banking sector affected the market sentiment badly.Major Public sector companies corrected more than 30% and still the bottom fishing not started.
      
     We have seen a trend channel break down in February.but,failed to reach the same in last four months.So,current consolidation level will be crucial in determining medium term trend for one or two quarters.A breakout above 10800 with volume spurt is required to maintain the revival towards all time high.Otherwise,market may remain weak and any adverse global or domestic news may lead the index towards 10450 level.If next Earnings season fails to improve substantially from current level,NIFTY may retest the next consolidation area of 10200-10000 again in upcoming quarters.

 Disclaimer:Above observation is based on Techno fundamental parameters of general market and not a recommendation.Consult your financial advisor before any investment decision.

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